Few people have impacted our understanding of Chinese role in the development of African economies as Eric Olander - prominent analyst, researcher and journalist. Eric is co-founder and editor-in-chief of the China-Global South Project, an independent, non-partisan media initiative dedicated to exploring every facet of China's engagement in Africa. Eric is a fluent Mandarin-speaker and a longtime China-watcher with more than 25 years of journalism experience at many of the world's leading media companies including CNN, the BBC, and FRANCE24 among others. He received his undergraduate degree in East African History from the University of California at Berkeley and holds a master's degree in Chinese Public Affairs from the University of Hong Kong.

I am an avid listener of China-Global South Podcast (earlier: China-Africa Podcast) for many years, and I was honored to interview Mr. Olander for this article. In our conversation, Eric gave deep insights about AI and other technology development in Africa and role of China from his years of experience.

Competing visions of digital sovereignty

Mr. Olander explained how countries view digital sovereignty differently. "The Chinese worldview on internet sovereignty is very different than the Western worldview," he noted. "China does not believe in universal values. They believe that internet cyberspace is much the same as the territorial boundaries of a country."

In the Chinese model, digital governance extends from territorial sovereignty. Countries can make their own rules for digital spaces within their borders. Many African nations now follow this approach. Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Senegal have all adopted similar policies.

"This is something that the Ethiopian government subscribes to," he explained. "This is something Nigeria has also subscribed to." He pointed to concrete examples. "Senegal followed China: they modeled and Huawei built the data center that all information must be housed in Senegal."

The Western model claims to support universal internet access and standards. But Mr. Olander sees inconsistencies here. "The European Union is the most hypocritical because they talk about a universal internet. But GDPR is a very rigid expression of digital sovereignty," he observed.

The reality of AI sovereignty for developing nations

Mr. Olander spoke frankly about African countries trying to develop their own AI. "African countries are often insisting on an overly ambitious targets: 'we need to develop our own solutions, we have to own full technological stack, we must build our own infrastructure’, when it's very expensive, practically Impossible. I do not see how each African country can build its own ChatGPT."

He explained several major challenges for African nations. Infrastructure is a big problem. "To run these server farms requires an incredible amount of energy. They don't have the energy capacity," he explained. Energy shortages already exist in more developed countries. "We have brownouts in Vietnam just with the current load. Adding AI server farms will put a strain on the grid that it can't support."

Mr. Olander compared energy capacity between countries. "Vietnam has 87 gigawatt installed capacity for 90 million people. And Ethiopia, 130 million people have five." This huge gap makes AI development very difficult.

China's advantage in African markets

Mr. Olander explained why Chinese technology companies succeed in Africa. The approach is simple but effective. "China, unlike the West, is building products specifically for Africa. That gives the Chinese companies a very big advantage," he said.

He provided several clear examples. "Techno is the most important tech company in Africa today. Their smartphones have been number one for ten years. This brands dominate the market, because they were focused on it for a long, long time."

This success comes from attention to local needs. "One reason they were effective is because they fine-tune their camera to take better pictures of people with dark skin." Western phones were designed with lighter skin tones in mind.

This approach extends beyond phones. "The only region where Apple and Spotify are losing is Africa. And Tencent is Chinese owned." Other sectors show the same pattern. "Huawei's New Energy division creates solar solutions for African markets. Tesla is not building these solutions for Africa."

Chinese companies accept smaller profits than Western firms. "The Chinese are accustomed to working in a world of one percent margins. They have a culture of these low margin businesses." This makes them more willing to invest in African markets.

The future of African economic development

Mr. Olander has concerns about African industrial development. He quoted a colleague. "China was probably the last country that was industrialized. No other country will follow China to industrialize."

Manufacturing economics favor China. "The China price is unbeatable. No country, not even Ethiopia, can match China in producing products at their scale and price." This keeps African countries at the bottom of the production chain.

Automation makes this situation worse. "When AGI comes in the next few years, this will render vast parts of the global south useless." Traditional development paths may disappear. "The normal path was to go from farming to light industry to medium industry to heavy industry to high tech."

He shared a telling example. "I know families who work for Nike. Their only job is to improve automation so they don't need humans to make shoes." This raises serious questions. "What happens to Ethiopia when you don't need humans to manufacture anything?"

A different development path?

Mr. Olander mentioned economist David Indy's alternative approach. Investing in people might work better than building infrastructure. "He contends that the country would benefit more if they invested that money in education, health and human development."

Vietnam provides a contrast to Ethiopia's approach. "Vietnam’s economic performance is better than Ethiopia and Kenya because of high literacy, better life expectancy, and higher internet access. Human development is the emphasis, not heavy infrastructure."

The technological future of Africa

Mr. Olander predicts increasing Chinese presence in Africa's future. "In 10 years you'll see only Chinese EVs on the road in Ethiopia," he stated. This extends to all transportation. "They'll have scooters, bicycles, tractors, electric bikes, all Chinese."

AI will become part of everyday products. "When we talk about AI, we shouldn't only think about data servers and computers. Cars, phones, and solar panels will all have AI." This integration will happen across many sectors.

Our conversation with Mr. Olander revealed complex issues facing Africa's digital future. Technology aspirations meet economic realities. Political influence shapes available choices. African countries must choose between global tech systems that may not meet their specific needs or developing their own tech paths that might cost too much. Chinese technology and investment models will likely become more important across Africa in the coming years.